Election Predict 2010 announced today that conservatives have dropped 5% in the betting. The website says that there is a 50:50 chance of having either a conservative majority or a hung parliament.

The following map shows seats in the UK at the moment:



If you click 'Betfair forecast' you can compare the seats now to the seats after the general election according to predictions by the world's leading betting exchange.

Why not make your own predictions using the diagrams above and let me know the results? Who do you think will get the majority vote? Or do you predict a hung parliament? Is there still time for Labour to pull it back?

Yesterday Chancellor Alistair Darling revealed 'The Budget 2010' which has had journalists, politicians and economists in a spin since. Is it a budget that will help our country's economy to recover or is it a tactical budget to gain latent voters in a bid to stop the conservatives coming into power in the up and coming general election?

It seems that labour have targeted young people specifically with their financial plans. Young people under the age of 24 will be guaranteed work or training if they have been unemployed for six months until 2012. In addition, young parents will receive more in tax credit. There will also be funding for 20,000 extra university places, although only in science and maths.

However this may not be enough to entice young alcohol drinkers and smokers. The new budget includes a rise on wine, beer and spirit duties by 2%, tobacco duties by 1% and cider duties by a huge 10% above inflation starting on Sunday at midnight.



In reaction to the budget announcement, David Cameron accused Labour of making a complete mess of the economy. He said: “They have doubled the national debt, and on these figures they are going to double the national debt again”:



What are your thoughts on the budget 2010? Are you even more confused about who to vote for than you were previously? Will this budget announcement affect the way you vote? Do you think the cuts are enough for the recovery of our economy? Do you even care?

Independent candidate Denny de la Haye, for Hackney South and Shoreditch in East London, has set up what he calls 'Direct Digital Democracy' online, which he assures voters will be used to enable his constituents to tell him which way to vote on each issue debated in Parliament.

This radical new approach is arguably an attempt to reach out and offer something different to those who are confused about who to vote for - like many young people. The idea is that Denny de la Haye will set up online polls on his website, getavote.org, for each issue debated in parliament, and vote whichever way the public tells him to on those issues.

According to the website there are only three exceptions to this rule. He says:
1. I will always vote for laws which improve equality
2. I will always vote for laws which will improve civil liberties
3. I will always vote for laws which improve our democracy

From the website: “How will it work? For each vote coming up in Parliament, I will put a poll on this website. Every voter living in Hackney South will have a login for this website, and will be able to vote in the polls using their computer or their mobile phone. Whatever the majority vote is, I will vote that way."

Denny de la Haye, who says that he is 'not a career politician', has been highly involved in social media during his campaign, using Twitter and Facebook to drum up support. If you take a look at getavote.org, you will see that it has a colorful, simple and youthful layout. You only need to look at his logo above. Could it be that he is going for the young voter? If so, is he successful in attracting them?

Would you consider giving him your vote if he was in your community? Should all politicians be using this approach?

It is a well known fact that the young person's vote has been on the decline for quite some time, so what efforts have we seen from politicians to try and engage with young people?

I can't very well say that there has been no efforts whatsoever. I'm sure there has been the odd occasion in which MPs have visited schools or universities, or answered questions from young people from time to time. Assuming that this is the case, is it enough? The fact is that I can't think of a single effort by any MP which has been directed specifically at young people. Can you?

Could it be that politicians don't actually want to change to target young people because they are afraid of losing their more mature followings? Or is it that they don't actually care that young people don't vote?

One argument put forward as to why many young people are not voting is that the representation of politics in the media is too complicated. However many politicians would argue that the media over-simplifies politics in order to create entertaining stories. So what’s going on?

Perhaps the route of this issue comes down to the relationships between politicians and the media. There is clearly a large amount of mistrust on both sides towards the other, and manipulation is often prevalent in the communication between the two parties. These trust issues can sometimes filter into the media communications we receive, making it contradictory. Could it be that many young people are not as confused about content as they are about what to believe?

“Newspapers, magazines, TV, the internet and other types of media are used by the public to find information about what's going with the issues they care about and Parliament generally. So, if there's a communication breakdown between politicians and the media then that's going to have a big effect on the people of the UK in terms of their political knowledge and ability to get involved” (Headsup.org.uk)
Perhaps it is not so much mistrust between the media and politicians as it is a lack of understanding which causes the communication breakdowns. ITV political correspondent Nick Robinson, columnist for The Times, wrote in 2004 about the pressures of having to report on a vast range of complex specialisms under the umbrella of politics such as weapons systems or intelligence.

He said: “I have always tried to resist adding doubt and suspicion to every political statement. I would deeply regret ensuring that people did not believe a word of what politicians say. Politicians would do well to remember that journalists care as much as they do about whether they are trusted” (Times Online)

Can the lack of engagement in politics amongst young people be attributed to the above mentioned issues?